Just an observation while at work today: Some people seem to be in seriously cranky moods, judging by our message boards.
We had some rather innocuous features today (to be expected on a holiday) that seemed to stick in people's collective craws. There was the obligatory first baby of 2009 story, a nice piece on how seventh-graders are trying to make the Chinook the state dog, and another feature on a guy who enlisted in the Army at 39 (Note: These stories always bring out both sides in the the message board debates, but in light of the other "lighter" stories, thought it was worth a mention).
What happened to hoping 2009 is better? Yikes.
-JDE2
Friday, January 2, 2009
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Pats post-mortem
While I await a response from customer support on a work-related issue, thought I'd dash off a few thoughts on the Patriots season:
--I will never second-guess Bill Belichick again. Remember that sick feeling we had in our stomachs when Tom Brady went down on the second series of the season? As Matt Cassel came out to take snaps, my colleague Mr. McSorley texted me with the message, "The one thing we never wanted to see."
Seriously. The best QB in the NFL was down (and I knew it was bad when he went back to the locker room. There would be no miraculous, uplifting return a la Larry Bird/Paul Pierce.) And this guy, who hadn't taken a snap when it counted since high school, whose main claim to fame was backing up not one, but two Heisman winners at USC, who had spent four years wearing a baseball cap and holding a clipboard instead of a helmet and a football in games, and who had looked, to put it charitably, lousy in preseason . . . THIS was the guy who was going to take the reins of a team that came within 30 seconds of an undefeated season last year?
And the kid pulled it together magnificently. Yes, there were rough spots, which are to be expected when someone basically has to learn on the job. But 11-5? I had visions of 8-8 . . . which, come to think of it, might've been good enough to win the NFC West.
-- Yes, I wanted blood after last year. I wanted no mercy. I thought Brady sitting out the preseason was an effort at sandbagging. I came damn near close to buying a "37-1" t-shirt. But in some ways, this was more satisfying. We were treated to discovering an emerging star in Cassel, reminding us what it was like to watch Brady take over in 2001. With all their injuries, especially on defense (hey, give Cassel credit, but he still did have Moss and Welker to throw to), they still came together nicely. We as fans have really been spoiled, with no tell-tale holes in any unit on the team the past couple years. This year, the secondary was a big question mark, and once Rodney Harrison went down for the season, that was tough to overcome. Losing Tedy Bruschi and having to get Junior Seau off his surfboard and Rosevelt Colvin off from wherever was, in hindsight, probably a push - mainly because of the strong rookie season of Jerod Mayo and the continued solid play of Mike Vrabel.
-- Speaking of defense, someone raised this intriguing possibility: Why not trade Cassel and trade Brady? The resulting draft picks and players could be used to shore up the defense.
As we've learned from the Lawyer Milloy situation in 2003, Belichick recognizes that what makes the team better now is what matters. Yes, I'd love to see Brady finish his career with a Flying Elvis on his helmet. But if the team truly believes in Kevin O'Connell (and from accounts, they seem to) a move like that wouldn't and shouldn't shock folks.
--Part of me wonders if this works out better for Cassel's possible free agency. Leading a team with a decimated defense to a fighting chance of a playoff spot looks good on the resume, perhaps better than if said defense had been run over in a first-round blowout, overshadowing any QB's performance.
--This is not Pats-related, but hey, Brett Favre: 9 picks and 2 TD passes in the final 5 games? That doesn't look good, even on your HoF resume.
--Again, when all is said and done, it was a fun ride. Let's hope it doesn' t end this soon in 2009.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a Bruins bandwagon to jump on. . .wearing my new Celtics fleece, no less.
-JDE2
--I will never second-guess Bill Belichick again. Remember that sick feeling we had in our stomachs when Tom Brady went down on the second series of the season? As Matt Cassel came out to take snaps, my colleague Mr. McSorley texted me with the message, "The one thing we never wanted to see."
Seriously. The best QB in the NFL was down (and I knew it was bad when he went back to the locker room. There would be no miraculous, uplifting return a la Larry Bird/Paul Pierce.) And this guy, who hadn't taken a snap when it counted since high school, whose main claim to fame was backing up not one, but two Heisman winners at USC, who had spent four years wearing a baseball cap and holding a clipboard instead of a helmet and a football in games, and who had looked, to put it charitably, lousy in preseason . . . THIS was the guy who was going to take the reins of a team that came within 30 seconds of an undefeated season last year?
And the kid pulled it together magnificently. Yes, there were rough spots, which are to be expected when someone basically has to learn on the job. But 11-5? I had visions of 8-8 . . . which, come to think of it, might've been good enough to win the NFC West.
-- Yes, I wanted blood after last year. I wanted no mercy. I thought Brady sitting out the preseason was an effort at sandbagging. I came damn near close to buying a "37-1" t-shirt. But in some ways, this was more satisfying. We were treated to discovering an emerging star in Cassel, reminding us what it was like to watch Brady take over in 2001. With all their injuries, especially on defense (hey, give Cassel credit, but he still did have Moss and Welker to throw to), they still came together nicely. We as fans have really been spoiled, with no tell-tale holes in any unit on the team the past couple years. This year, the secondary was a big question mark, and once Rodney Harrison went down for the season, that was tough to overcome. Losing Tedy Bruschi and having to get Junior Seau off his surfboard and Rosevelt Colvin off from wherever was, in hindsight, probably a push - mainly because of the strong rookie season of Jerod Mayo and the continued solid play of Mike Vrabel.
-- Speaking of defense, someone raised this intriguing possibility: Why not trade Cassel and trade Brady? The resulting draft picks and players could be used to shore up the defense.
As we've learned from the Lawyer Milloy situation in 2003, Belichick recognizes that what makes the team better now is what matters. Yes, I'd love to see Brady finish his career with a Flying Elvis on his helmet. But if the team truly believes in Kevin O'Connell (and from accounts, they seem to) a move like that wouldn't and shouldn't shock folks.
--Part of me wonders if this works out better for Cassel's possible free agency. Leading a team with a decimated defense to a fighting chance of a playoff spot looks good on the resume, perhaps better than if said defense had been run over in a first-round blowout, overshadowing any QB's performance.
--This is not Pats-related, but hey, Brett Favre: 9 picks and 2 TD passes in the final 5 games? That doesn't look good, even on your HoF resume.
--Again, when all is said and done, it was a fun ride. Let's hope it doesn' t end this soon in 2009.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have a Bruins bandwagon to jump on. . .wearing my new Celtics fleece, no less.
-JDE2
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Ice Storm, Part Deux
We have power at our house once again, after 172 hours and change - more than a week for you math-challenged types.
Here's a few thoughts:
-- Plenty of people still don't have power. Many will go without power on Christmas. But the job the utility companies did getting as many people back online within a week was remarkable.
-- And of course, it may not be over yet: We got about a foot of snow in some spots yesterday and another big storm is forecast for Sunday.
-- My minor bitching aside (and it was minor: You should see our comment boards at unionleader.com . . . even the ones we didn't let through! Hey!), this thought occured to me: We are a bunch of wimps.
Seriously, the myth of the "hardy New Englander" was somewhat demolished this past week, especially after seeing some people upset they were without power . . . for hours.
Somewhere, our Pilgrim ancestors are laughing their buckled shoes and hats and knee breeches off at us. Granted, a major reason they stopped here was because they ran out of beer. In hindsight, don't you think an extra barrel or two of porter or stout would've helped them settle in warmer climes?
Anyway, I've been through the Blizzard of '77, the Blizzard of '78, Hurricane Gloria in '85, "The Perfect Storm" in '91, the "Storm of the Century" in '93, a 39-below air temperature in '93, the Ice Storm in '98, and probably a few other weather phenomena I forgot to mention. I can't remember any storm ever displacing me, until now.
And full disclosure: My in-laws got power back Friday night. So for a week, my wife and I and our two toddlers got to crash there. We had hot meals, hot showers and a warm bed. (Granted, at midweek our 4-year-old son confessed he missed his room. Even a playland like Nana and Pop-Pop's has its limits.) I honestly don't know what we would have done if they didn't get power back. So my criticism can be taken with a grain of salt.
At any rate, I actually saw someone compare the situation here to Katrina. Come on: You may have had to throw away a fridge full of food (in our case, a fridge and stand-up freezer-full, though we were in time to salvage the holiday birds), you may have frozen your tuckus off in your home (38 degrees in my house when power was restored), you may have even gone without a shower for a week . . . or longer (yikes!) . . . but you weren't on the roof of your house, watching water rise, praying for rescue as everything you owned was swept away.
Communication was tough to come by. Funny how that switch to the cable phone system seems a bit short-sighted now. Previously, I remember the phone always working in a power outage. But the way we saved trips back to the house was to call. If voice mail picked up, it was still dark. It got to the point where my wife and I couldn't stand the sound of my voice saying, "Hi! We're not able to come to the phone right now. . . "
Look, was I prepared for this? No. Guilty. And yes, I've made fun of all those folks who crowd the supermarkets before a storm to stock up on things. Sufficiently chastised, especially after a run to grab batteries on Friday, I won't again. And a generator is on the to-do list now, as is looking into a wood stove, something I had in my previous house that worked brilliantly during the 1998 ice storm.
Yes, our ancestors were hardy sorts. But they were lucky to bathe once a year and, ahem, relieved themselves outdoors. I like indoor plumbing and modern conveniences.
So I'm a wimp, too.
So be it.
-JDE2
Here's a few thoughts:
-- Plenty of people still don't have power. Many will go without power on Christmas. But the job the utility companies did getting as many people back online within a week was remarkable.
-- And of course, it may not be over yet: We got about a foot of snow in some spots yesterday and another big storm is forecast for Sunday.
-- My minor bitching aside (and it was minor: You should see our comment boards at unionleader.com . . . even the ones we didn't let through! Hey!), this thought occured to me: We are a bunch of wimps.
Seriously, the myth of the "hardy New Englander" was somewhat demolished this past week, especially after seeing some people upset they were without power . . . for hours.
Somewhere, our Pilgrim ancestors are laughing their buckled shoes and hats and knee breeches off at us. Granted, a major reason they stopped here was because they ran out of beer. In hindsight, don't you think an extra barrel or two of porter or stout would've helped them settle in warmer climes?
Anyway, I've been through the Blizzard of '77, the Blizzard of '78, Hurricane Gloria in '85, "The Perfect Storm" in '91, the "Storm of the Century" in '93, a 39-below air temperature in '93, the Ice Storm in '98, and probably a few other weather phenomena I forgot to mention. I can't remember any storm ever displacing me, until now.
And full disclosure: My in-laws got power back Friday night. So for a week, my wife and I and our two toddlers got to crash there. We had hot meals, hot showers and a warm bed. (Granted, at midweek our 4-year-old son confessed he missed his room. Even a playland like Nana and Pop-Pop's has its limits.) I honestly don't know what we would have done if they didn't get power back. So my criticism can be taken with a grain of salt.
At any rate, I actually saw someone compare the situation here to Katrina. Come on: You may have had to throw away a fridge full of food (in our case, a fridge and stand-up freezer-full, though we were in time to salvage the holiday birds), you may have frozen your tuckus off in your home (38 degrees in my house when power was restored), you may have even gone without a shower for a week . . . or longer (yikes!) . . . but you weren't on the roof of your house, watching water rise, praying for rescue as everything you owned was swept away.
Communication was tough to come by. Funny how that switch to the cable phone system seems a bit short-sighted now. Previously, I remember the phone always working in a power outage. But the way we saved trips back to the house was to call. If voice mail picked up, it was still dark. It got to the point where my wife and I couldn't stand the sound of my voice saying, "Hi! We're not able to come to the phone right now. . . "
Look, was I prepared for this? No. Guilty. And yes, I've made fun of all those folks who crowd the supermarkets before a storm to stock up on things. Sufficiently chastised, especially after a run to grab batteries on Friday, I won't again. And a generator is on the to-do list now, as is looking into a wood stove, something I had in my previous house that worked brilliantly during the 1998 ice storm.
Yes, our ancestors were hardy sorts. But they were lucky to bathe once a year and, ahem, relieved themselves outdoors. I like indoor plumbing and modern conveniences.
So I'm a wimp, too.
So be it.
-JDE2
Thursday, December 18, 2008
This Abe Lincoln/Amish/Living-Off-The-Grid/Little House on the #!@&ing Prairie Life Sucks
We haven't posted in a while, and while I can't speak for Matt, my issue for what will have been a full week now as of midnight tonight is a lack of electricity. I'm writing this from work.
The question everyone has been asking when greeting an acquaintance in Southern NH the last few days isn't, "How are you?" or even, "How's the Christmas shopping going?" Nope, it's been "Got power yet?"
Last Thursday night, a massive ice storm hit the state and region. Those of us whose previous reference to "a bad ice storm" was the one we had in December 1998 were totally unprepared for the scale of this one.
Do the math: In 1998, my previous house was without power for four days. Some 70,000 customers lost power in the state. A staggering 424,000 customers (note the term, as that probably means far more people) were without power a week ago tomorrow after the storm. The fact that the number has gone down to below 70,000 as of this morning is a testament to the hard work of the crews who have come from as far as Ohio and Maryland to help out.
I really can't complain: My in-laws got power restored within a day, and my family and have had a warm place to stay, hot meals and hot showers for the week. And we should get it restored to our house this weekend, weather permitting. Many folks won't have power for Christmas.
Still, it's been a disheartening experiece to pull up to our dark, cold house (39 degrees inside when I checked this morning) and hear the roar of my neighbors' generators still going after a week.
As I post this, the house is going on its 160th hour without electricity. Amazing.
-JDE2
The question everyone has been asking when greeting an acquaintance in Southern NH the last few days isn't, "How are you?" or even, "How's the Christmas shopping going?" Nope, it's been "Got power yet?"
Last Thursday night, a massive ice storm hit the state and region. Those of us whose previous reference to "a bad ice storm" was the one we had in December 1998 were totally unprepared for the scale of this one.
Do the math: In 1998, my previous house was without power for four days. Some 70,000 customers lost power in the state. A staggering 424,000 customers (note the term, as that probably means far more people) were without power a week ago tomorrow after the storm. The fact that the number has gone down to below 70,000 as of this morning is a testament to the hard work of the crews who have come from as far as Ohio and Maryland to help out.
I really can't complain: My in-laws got power restored within a day, and my family and have had a warm place to stay, hot meals and hot showers for the week. And we should get it restored to our house this weekend, weather permitting. Many folks won't have power for Christmas.
Still, it's been a disheartening experiece to pull up to our dark, cold house (39 degrees inside when I checked this morning) and hear the roar of my neighbors' generators still going after a week.
As I post this, the house is going on its 160th hour without electricity. Amazing.
-JDE2
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Historically speaking
For reasons unknown to me, I got to wondering if the Patriots' recent run of brilliance had made them the historic kings of the AFC East. Now, with three Super Bowl wins (the rest of the division has three combined -- Miami with two and the Jets with one) and six Super Bowl appearances (one more than Miami, with five, and two more than Buffalo, with four) that case is probably already made. But I wondered which team has won the most AFC East titles since the AFL-NFL merger.
Turns out New England still has work to do there. Here's the roster:
Miami: 12 (1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2000)
New England: 11 (1978, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007)
Buffalo: 7 (1980, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1995)
New York: 2 (1998, 2002)
Notes on a few other teams: Pittsburgh has won 18 division championships since the merger; San Francisco has 17; Dallas has 16; the Raiders have 12; the Colts have 11; Denver has 10.
-- MJM
Turns out New England still has work to do there. Here's the roster:
Miami: 12 (1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1979, 1981, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1992, 1994, 2000)
New England: 11 (1978, 1986, 1996, 1997, 2001, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007)
Buffalo: 7 (1980, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1993, 1995)
New York: 2 (1998, 2002)
Notes on a few other teams: Pittsburgh has won 18 division championships since the merger; San Francisco has 17; Dallas has 16; the Raiders have 12; the Colts have 11; Denver has 10.
-- MJM
Updated Pats Playoff Odds
New England gutted out a come-from-behind 24-21 win at noisy Seattle today. Meanwhile, San Francisco did the Pats an unexpected favor by beating the J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets, and Miami beat Buffalo in the Bills' second home, Toronto. Eh?
That places all three teams at 8-5 with three games to go. New England is at Oakland, home to Arizona and at Buffalo. New York is home to Buffalo, at Seattle and home to Miami. Miami is home to San Francisco, then at Kansas City and at the Jets. The Pats have the toughest schedule because Arizona, yes, it's true, is a division champion. The Jets have two games at home. Miami has two very winnable games before the season-ending Meadowlands encounter.
The Patriots most likely have to finish ahead of both the Jets and Dolphins as New England is in a tough spot in a tie-breaker with both teams. So the Pats have to win their next three and hope both Miami and the Jets lose one of their final three. They play each other, so one of those two teams is going to lose a game.
So let's play this out: Pats win three, Jets win three. That means the Jets will have beaten Miami, so the Dolphins finish a game behind and out of the picture. The Jets win the division because of a superior record in the division (5-1, as opposed to New England's 4-2).
Pats win three, Dolphins win three. That means the Dolphins will have beaten the Jets, and New York is dropped. You have to go to the fourth tie-breaker to sort this one out. The tie-breakers are:
1. Head-to-head record (that's even at 1-1).
2. Best record in the division (that's even at 4-2).
3. Best record in common games (that's even at 9-5).
4. Best record in conference games. That goes to Miami, which finishes 8-4 in conference under this scenario, while New England finishes 7-5.
Most likely picture to help the Pats? Stumbling Buffalo plays for pride and beats the Jets next week. Then hope the Jets can beat Miami in the season finale. Miami and New York finish 10-6, Pats finish 11-5 (if they run the table) and win the division for the sixth straight year.
Still a lot to happen before this one is settled.
-- MJM
That places all three teams at 8-5 with three games to go. New England is at Oakland, home to Arizona and at Buffalo. New York is home to Buffalo, at Seattle and home to Miami. Miami is home to San Francisco, then at Kansas City and at the Jets. The Pats have the toughest schedule because Arizona, yes, it's true, is a division champion. The Jets have two games at home. Miami has two very winnable games before the season-ending Meadowlands encounter.
The Patriots most likely have to finish ahead of both the Jets and Dolphins as New England is in a tough spot in a tie-breaker with both teams. So the Pats have to win their next three and hope both Miami and the Jets lose one of their final three. They play each other, so one of those two teams is going to lose a game.
So let's play this out: Pats win three, Jets win three. That means the Jets will have beaten Miami, so the Dolphins finish a game behind and out of the picture. The Jets win the division because of a superior record in the division (5-1, as opposed to New England's 4-2).
Pats win three, Dolphins win three. That means the Dolphins will have beaten the Jets, and New York is dropped. You have to go to the fourth tie-breaker to sort this one out. The tie-breakers are:
1. Head-to-head record (that's even at 1-1).
2. Best record in the division (that's even at 4-2).
3. Best record in common games (that's even at 9-5).
4. Best record in conference games. That goes to Miami, which finishes 8-4 in conference under this scenario, while New England finishes 7-5.
Most likely picture to help the Pats? Stumbling Buffalo plays for pride and beats the Jets next week. Then hope the Jets can beat Miami in the season finale. Miami and New York finish 10-6, Pats finish 11-5 (if they run the table) and win the division for the sixth straight year.
Still a lot to happen before this one is settled.
-- MJM
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Pats' Playoff Odds
After today's disgraceful loss to Pittsburgh (not that losing to the Steelers is a disgrace but five turnovers and sloppy play is), the Pats have two realistic shots at the playoffs, but only if they run the table in their four remaining games.
That feat is possible. The Pats next visit Seattle, who's awful, and the Raiders, who are awful. Then they host Arizona, which benefits from a weak division and is a game the Pats should win. The end-of-season matchup is a biggie at Buffalo against a respectable team in a place that's always tough to play. But it's a game that can be won.
But that's not enough. The Pats need help to get in at this point and that help can come in one of two ways:
1. AFC East. The Jets are a game ahead of the Patriots so New England needs Gang Green to lose another game before the season ends. Ah, but it can't be just any game the Jets lose. It has to be a divisional game. That's because in case of a tie, the second NFL tie-breaker in a divisional race (after head-to-head, which is 1-1, so that won't break a deadlock) is record in divisional games. The Pats are 3-2, the Jets 3-1. If the Pats beat Buffalo, which they absolutely have to do to play in January, that'll make New England 4-2. If the Jets win their remaining divisional games, against the Bills and Dolphins (both at home), the Jets win the tie-break with a 5-1 mark. So the Pats need New York to lose an AFC East game to come down to 4-2.
The next tie-breaker is record in common games and that breaks in the Pats' favor, thanks to Denver's win over the NYJ today. The Pats are 6-2 in common games, the Jets 5-3. If the Pats win out (and all four of their remaining games are against common opponents) that mark jumps to 10-2. The Jets could do no better than 8-4 (remember, to get to this tie-break the Jets had to lose a divisional game, which is also a common opponent).
HOWEVER, there's a spanner in the works and its name is Tuna.
If Miami wins its four remaining games, which would include a season-ender against the Jets, the Fins end 11-5. If the Jets win their other three games, that would create a three-way tie between New England, New York and Miami at 11-5. Under that scenario, the first tie-breaker is record against the other two teams. That would be: NE 2-2, Mia 2-2, NYJ 2-2. Second tie-breaker is record within the division. That would be: NE 4-2, Mia 4-2, NYJ 4-2. Third tie-breaker is record in common games: That would be NE 10-2, Mia 10-2, NYJ 8-4. So finally we knock out the Jets. Fourth tie-breaker is record in conference games. That would be: Mia 8-4, NE 7-5.
SO, the plot thickens. The Pats need to win out. They need the Jets and Dolphins to go 3-1 or worse. And they the need Jets to lose to Miami or Buffalo. And if the Jets lose to the Dolphins, the Pats need the Dolphins to lose one of their other games (their remaining opponents are Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco).
Ideal scenario for Pats to win the division: Win out, have Jets lose to Buffalo and win the rest of their games, including Miami. That way NE finishes 11-5, NYJ finishes 11-5 and Miami finishes 10-6. And the Pats win the tie-break with the Jets.
Confused? Wait. There's more.
2. Wild Card. Right now the Colts and Ravens are the prime competition for wild card berths. Forget the Colts. They're 8-4, a game better than New England, and they beat the Pats head-t0-head. They'll have to go 2-2 the rest of the way to fall behind New England and that isn't likely. The Colts have two wins in the bag -- their next two games are against the Bengals and Lions and their combined 1-22-1 record. Indy finishes with two toughies -- at Jacksonville and home to Tennessee. But figure the battle-tested Colts can win one of those and finish no worse than 11-5, which is the best the Pats can hope for.
Overcoming the Ravens will be hard, too, and here's why. They sit 8-4, one game better than the Pats. They didn't play head-to-head, so the first tie-breaker between New England and Baltimore is record in conference games. Right now the Pats are 7-5, the Ravens 9-3. So if my run the table theory holds true, the Pats finish 11-5, 9-5 in conference games. The Ravens have to lose their two remaining conference games, home to Pittsburgh and home to Jacksonville, to go 9-5 in conference games. Losing those two would also put Baltimore at no better than 10-6, so an 11-5 Pats team finishes ahead. So, basically, the Pats have to finish ahead of Baltimore. If the Ravens go 11-5, that means they won one of their two conference games and finish with a better conference record and go to the playoffs ahead of the Pats.
Got a headache yet? You could skip trying to absorb it and reach a reasonable conclusion: No playoffs in Foxborough this year. The Super Bowl loser jinx strikes again.
-- MJM
That feat is possible. The Pats next visit Seattle, who's awful, and the Raiders, who are awful. Then they host Arizona, which benefits from a weak division and is a game the Pats should win. The end-of-season matchup is a biggie at Buffalo against a respectable team in a place that's always tough to play. But it's a game that can be won.
But that's not enough. The Pats need help to get in at this point and that help can come in one of two ways:
1. AFC East. The Jets are a game ahead of the Patriots so New England needs Gang Green to lose another game before the season ends. Ah, but it can't be just any game the Jets lose. It has to be a divisional game. That's because in case of a tie, the second NFL tie-breaker in a divisional race (after head-to-head, which is 1-1, so that won't break a deadlock) is record in divisional games. The Pats are 3-2, the Jets 3-1. If the Pats beat Buffalo, which they absolutely have to do to play in January, that'll make New England 4-2. If the Jets win their remaining divisional games, against the Bills and Dolphins (both at home), the Jets win the tie-break with a 5-1 mark. So the Pats need New York to lose an AFC East game to come down to 4-2.
The next tie-breaker is record in common games and that breaks in the Pats' favor, thanks to Denver's win over the NYJ today. The Pats are 6-2 in common games, the Jets 5-3. If the Pats win out (and all four of their remaining games are against common opponents) that mark jumps to 10-2. The Jets could do no better than 8-4 (remember, to get to this tie-break the Jets had to lose a divisional game, which is also a common opponent).
HOWEVER, there's a spanner in the works and its name is Tuna.
If Miami wins its four remaining games, which would include a season-ender against the Jets, the Fins end 11-5. If the Jets win their other three games, that would create a three-way tie between New England, New York and Miami at 11-5. Under that scenario, the first tie-breaker is record against the other two teams. That would be: NE 2-2, Mia 2-2, NYJ 2-2. Second tie-breaker is record within the division. That would be: NE 4-2, Mia 4-2, NYJ 4-2. Third tie-breaker is record in common games: That would be NE 10-2, Mia 10-2, NYJ 8-4. So finally we knock out the Jets. Fourth tie-breaker is record in conference games. That would be: Mia 8-4, NE 7-5.
SO, the plot thickens. The Pats need to win out. They need the Jets and Dolphins to go 3-1 or worse. And they the need Jets to lose to Miami or Buffalo. And if the Jets lose to the Dolphins, the Pats need the Dolphins to lose one of their other games (their remaining opponents are Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco).
Ideal scenario for Pats to win the division: Win out, have Jets lose to Buffalo and win the rest of their games, including Miami. That way NE finishes 11-5, NYJ finishes 11-5 and Miami finishes 10-6. And the Pats win the tie-break with the Jets.
Confused? Wait. There's more.
2. Wild Card. Right now the Colts and Ravens are the prime competition for wild card berths. Forget the Colts. They're 8-4, a game better than New England, and they beat the Pats head-t0-head. They'll have to go 2-2 the rest of the way to fall behind New England and that isn't likely. The Colts have two wins in the bag -- their next two games are against the Bengals and Lions and their combined 1-22-1 record. Indy finishes with two toughies -- at Jacksonville and home to Tennessee. But figure the battle-tested Colts can win one of those and finish no worse than 11-5, which is the best the Pats can hope for.
Overcoming the Ravens will be hard, too, and here's why. They sit 8-4, one game better than the Pats. They didn't play head-to-head, so the first tie-breaker between New England and Baltimore is record in conference games. Right now the Pats are 7-5, the Ravens 9-3. So if my run the table theory holds true, the Pats finish 11-5, 9-5 in conference games. The Ravens have to lose their two remaining conference games, home to Pittsburgh and home to Jacksonville, to go 9-5 in conference games. Losing those two would also put Baltimore at no better than 10-6, so an 11-5 Pats team finishes ahead. So, basically, the Pats have to finish ahead of Baltimore. If the Ravens go 11-5, that means they won one of their two conference games and finish with a better conference record and go to the playoffs ahead of the Pats.
Got a headache yet? You could skip trying to absorb it and reach a reasonable conclusion: No playoffs in Foxborough this year. The Super Bowl loser jinx strikes again.
-- MJM
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