Updated Pats Playoff Odds

New England gutted out a come-from-behind 24-21 win at noisy Seattle today. Meanwhile, San Francisco did the Pats an unexpected favor by beating the J-E-T-S JetsJetsJets, and Miami beat Buffalo in the Bills' second home, Toronto. Eh?

That places all three teams at 8-5 with three games to go. New England is at Oakland, home to Arizona and at Buffalo. New York is home to Buffalo, at Seattle and home to Miami. Miami is home to San Francisco, then at Kansas City and at the Jets. The Pats have the toughest schedule because Arizona, yes, it's true, is a division champion. The Jets have two games at home. Miami has two very winnable games before the season-ending Meadowlands encounter.

The Patriots most likely have to finish ahead of both the Jets and Dolphins as New England is in a tough spot in a tie-breaker with both teams. So the Pats have to win their next three and hope both Miami and the Jets lose one of their final three. They play each other, so one of those two teams is going to lose a game.

So let's play this out: Pats win three, Jets win three. That means the Jets will have beaten Miami, so the Dolphins finish a game behind and out of the picture. The Jets win the division because of a superior record in the division (5-1, as opposed to New England's 4-2).

Pats win three, Dolphins win three. That means the Dolphins will have beaten the Jets, and New York is dropped. You have to go to the fourth tie-breaker to sort this one out. The tie-breakers are:

1. Head-to-head record (that's even at 1-1).
2. Best record in the division (that's even at 4-2).
3. Best record in common games (that's even at 9-5).
4. Best record in conference games. That goes to Miami, which finishes 8-4 in conference under this scenario, while New England finishes 7-5.

Most likely picture to help the Pats? Stumbling Buffalo plays for pride and beats the Jets next week. Then hope the Jets can beat Miami in the season finale. Miami and New York finish 10-6, Pats finish 11-5 (if they run the table) and win the division for the sixth straight year.

Still a lot to happen before this one is settled.

-- MJM