Pats' Playoff Odds

After today's disgraceful loss to Pittsburgh (not that losing to the Steelers is a disgrace but five turnovers and sloppy play is), the Pats have two realistic shots at the playoffs, but only if they run the table in their four remaining games.

That feat is possible. The Pats next visit Seattle, who's awful, and the Raiders, who are awful. Then they host Arizona, which benefits from a weak division and is a game the Pats should win. The end-of-season matchup is a biggie at Buffalo against a respectable team in a place that's always tough to play. But it's a game that can be won.

But that's not enough. The Pats need help to get in at this point and that help can come in one of two ways:

1. AFC East. The Jets are a game ahead of the Patriots so New England needs Gang Green to lose another game before the season ends. Ah, but it can't be just any game the Jets lose. It has to be a divisional game. That's because in case of a tie, the second NFL tie-breaker in a divisional race (after head-to-head, which is 1-1, so that won't break a deadlock) is record in divisional games. The Pats are 3-2, the Jets 3-1. If the Pats beat Buffalo, which they absolutely have to do to play in January, that'll make New England 4-2. If the Jets win their remaining divisional games, against the Bills and Dolphins (both at home), the Jets win the tie-break with a 5-1 mark. So the Pats need New York to lose an AFC East game to come down to 4-2.

The next tie-breaker is record in common games and that breaks in the Pats' favor, thanks to Denver's win over the NYJ today. The Pats are 6-2 in common games, the Jets 5-3. If the Pats win out (and all four of their remaining games are against common opponents) that mark jumps to 10-2. The Jets could do no better than 8-4 (remember, to get to this tie-break the Jets had to lose a divisional game, which is also a common opponent).

HOWEVER, there's a spanner in the works and its name is Tuna.

If Miami wins its four remaining games, which would include a season-ender against the Jets, the Fins end 11-5. If the Jets win their other three games, that would create a three-way tie between New England, New York and Miami at 11-5. Under that scenario, the first tie-breaker is record against the other two teams. That would be: NE 2-2, Mia 2-2, NYJ 2-2. Second tie-breaker is record within the division. That would be: NE 4-2, Mia 4-2, NYJ 4-2. Third tie-breaker is record in common games: That would be NE 10-2, Mia 10-2, NYJ 8-4. So finally we knock out the Jets. Fourth tie-breaker is record in conference games. That would be: Mia 8-4, NE 7-5.

SO, the plot thickens. The Pats need to win out. They need the Jets and Dolphins to go 3-1 or worse. And they the need Jets to lose to Miami or Buffalo. And if the Jets lose to the Dolphins, the Pats need the Dolphins to lose one of their other games (their remaining opponents are Buffalo, Kansas City and San Francisco).

Ideal scenario for Pats to win the division: Win out, have Jets lose to Buffalo and win the rest of their games, including Miami. That way NE finishes 11-5, NYJ finishes 11-5 and Miami finishes 10-6. And the Pats win the tie-break with the Jets.

Confused? Wait. There's more.

2. Wild Card. Right now the Colts and Ravens are the prime competition for wild card berths. Forget the Colts. They're 8-4, a game better than New England, and they beat the Pats head-t0-head. They'll have to go 2-2 the rest of the way to fall behind New England and that isn't likely. The Colts have two wins in the bag -- their next two games are against the Bengals and Lions and their combined 1-22-1 record. Indy finishes with two toughies -- at Jacksonville and home to Tennessee. But figure the battle-tested Colts can win one of those and finish no worse than 11-5, which is the best the Pats can hope for.

Overcoming the Ravens will be hard, too, and here's why. They sit 8-4, one game better than the Pats. They didn't play head-to-head, so the first tie-breaker between New England and Baltimore is record in conference games. Right now the Pats are 7-5, the Ravens 9-3. So if my run the table theory holds true, the Pats finish 11-5, 9-5 in conference games. The Ravens have to lose their two remaining conference games, home to Pittsburgh and home to Jacksonville, to go 9-5 in conference games. Losing those two would also put Baltimore at no better than 10-6, so an 11-5 Pats team finishes ahead. So, basically, the Pats have to finish ahead of Baltimore. If the Ravens go 11-5, that means they won one of their two conference games and finish with a better conference record and go to the playoffs ahead of the Pats.

Got a headache yet? You could skip trying to absorb it and reach a reasonable conclusion: No playoffs in Foxborough this year. The Super Bowl loser jinx strikes again.

-- MJM